The 19th century Prussian officer and famed military theoretician Karl von Clausewitz wrote about Napoleon’s failed campaign to conquer Russia in 1812. After failing to drive the English out of Portugal and thus being unable to secure victory in Spain, Napoleon wanted to “avoid being involved in a similarly tedious and costly defensive struggle, upon a theater so much more distant,” Russia.
“In the case of Russia, he had against him the prodigious extent of the empire, and the circumstance of its having two capitals (Moscow and St. Petersburg) at a great distance from each other,” von Clausewitz wrote. Still, Napoleon hoped “the weakness of the Russian government and the dissension which he might hope to succeed in establishing” might overcome the disadvantages.
Napoleon was wrong, as his disastrous campaign in Russia proved. Hitler would learn a similar lesson in the next century.
Fast forward to the 21st century, and the neoliberal dream of regime change in Russia that would lead to its disintegration into various republics open to Western exploitation. This was the dream that prompted President Bill Clinton to lead NATO into the bombing of Serbia—long one of Russia’s staunchest allies—in the 1990s. This was the dream that prompted then-U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland to assist and applaud the overthrow of the duly elected, Russia-friendly government of Ukraine in 2014.
Today, signs finally exist that the futile proxy war between the United States and Russia in Ukraine may finally end as President Donald Trump upends 30 years of anti-Russian meddling and warmongering. That Trump, the bombastic, wheeling-and-dealing former real estate mogul, is leading the charge for peace is no less profoundly ironic than old commie-baiter Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, re-establishing relations with what was once a feared enemy.
Trump’s motivations may be simply his desire not to be overseeing a costly losing war. For Ukraine has indeed lost the war. Its troops are surrounded in Russia’s Kursk region. It steadily loses ground to the Russians along its eastern provinces. Its troops are decimated, dispirited, and desperate.
Yet, the neoliberals in Washington and especially across western Europe still pine for war and more war in their desire to punish and de-centralize Russia while finally ending Vladimir Putin's 25-year reign. They stupidly actually believe Ukraine could defeat Russia. The ghosts of Napoleon and Hitler finally get to laugh in hell.
England’s Keir Starmer, a modern-day labor leader who like his contemporaries in the U.S. loves war and hates Russians, actually believes Britain’s tiny military might can help prevent Russia from overrunning Europe (as if Putin’s Russia has any remote intention of doing that). Same goes for France’s Emmanuel Macron, who loves to rattle those sabers like some modern-day would-be Charles de Gaulle, if not quite Napoleon Bonaparte.
Of course, their guy in Ukraine is former comedian Volodymr Zelensky, a would-be strongman in his own country after shutting down all opposition, politically and media-wise. Zelensky got a dressing down in the White House, however, a couple weeks ago, something he’s not used to, after challenging Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s views on the war and Ukraine’s prospects.
At that dressing down, Zelensky lied repeatedly, saying Russia had broken peace agreements 15 times, ignoring the fact that it was Ukraine and the West, not Russia, that ultimately violated the two Minsk agreements and another peace initiative in Istanbul. Did mainstream media fact-check his idiotic claims? Of course, not.
Now there’s talk of a ceasefire with Ukraine and Europe quickly signing on to a deal that has little in it for Russia, but plenty for them—time to rebuild Ukraine’s defenses, pump more money into its weapons systems, and meanwhile make Russia look like its breaking the deal, not them.
Still, it may have been a fine diplomatic slight of hand on the Trump team’s part that got England and France even to endorse the idea of a ceasefire, thus interrupting their incessant cry for more war.
Putin says he’s all for a ceasefire in principle, but “nuances” exist that need to be addressed. He’s winning the war so why should he concede unnecessary ground to an enemy who is losing? Believe me, Putin remembers former German Chancellor Angela Merkel admitting that the West and Ukraine only signed on to the Minsk agreement to give Ukraine time to re-arm.
You don’t stay in power in the Kremlin for 25 years by ignoring the lies told you in the past when you’re dealing with the same liars.
Like Napoleon, Zelensky, Starmer and Macron believe time and continued war may ultimately expose what von Clausewitz called “the weakness of the Russian government” and cause enough dissension to allow for a Ukrainian victory.
Thank goodness, Donald Trump is giving them a lesson in what the Germans used to call “Realpolitik”.
